Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Dion Best Leader: 'Quebec Liberals'

Yesterday, La Presse reported on a sample of 'Quebec Liberals' who believe St├ęphane Dion would be the best person to lead the Liberal Party of Canada. This article and, indeed, the methodology used by CROP are misleading and useless for the purpose of the current leadership race.

The term Quebec Liberal is inaccurate given that these people have only identified themselves as Liberal voters. Among that sample, 21% would support Dion; Bob Rae would claim 15%; KenDryden 14%; Michael Ignatieff 13%. Lesser known candidates Joe Volpe and Scott Brison each have 1%. Note these are not card-carrying members of the LPC-Q who will be voting here in Montreal in seven months' time, though M. Dion would do well to start trying to recruit some of these people, as even among these identified Liberal voters, 34% are undecided. This report is no reason for celebration.

It's also telling that half of the total 'population' could care less about this race, but 43% believed that the leadership of the LPC should stay in Quebec. This is so very typical of Quebec, but it is also where things begin to fall off for M. Dion. Among the general population of Quebec, his support is at 15% to Ken Dryden's 13%, with Ignatieff and Rae at 12% each.

But what does this mean for the Leadership Race? Not too much without serious delegate recruitment from all camps.

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